Should Canada maintain current immigration levels over the next two decades, rent in major cities could render most Canadians homeless, according to new research.
Concordia University predicts rent could surpass a whopping $5,600 in major cities if trends continue, reported True North.
The report, AI-Driven Insights into Key Factors Influencing Canada’s Rental Market, suggests even a modest increase in newcomers can harm housing affordability.
A 1% uptick in immigrants correlates to a 0.6% hike in rent prices, said Erkan Yönder, associate professor of real estate and finance. For non-permanent residents, a 1% increase would spike rents by 2%.
Last year, the Department of Immigration reported that 471,550 immigrants were admitted to Canada under federal quotas. Additionally, there were 766,520 temporary foreign workers and 1,040,985 recipients of foreign study permits.
Marc Miller, the Trudeau Liberals’ immigration minister, puts the blame for Canada’s housing crisis on the provinces for not building enough housing.
The Liberals, meanwhile, have massively increased all forms of new arrivals to Canada.https://t.co/t50c3TNz74 pic.twitter.com/iqlSb3poVQ
— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) March 21, 2024
“Canadian immigration and housing policies have been out of sync for decades,” said Yönder.
“Concern about pressure placed on housing prices by immigration has increased substantially in the past year and a half, rising from 34 percent (in March 2022) to 45 percent (in March 2023) to 56 percent (in November 2023),” said a Deputy Minister Transition Binder, the worst collapse in support for immigration in two decades.
When asked if there are too many, too few, or about the right number of immigrants in Canada, 35% said there were too many. Most (51%) Ontarians and a significant minority of British Columbians (38%) said that there were “too many.”
On July 31, 2023, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau claimed “housing isn’t a primary federal responsibility” while pivoting to blame provincial governments for not “stepping up.”
“They need to be stepping up, particularly on affordable housing,” he said at the time. Since Trudeau assumed office in 2015, the average housing cost is 8.8 times the median household income.
Poilievre says he’ll provide exact numbers on immigration targets during the next election but assures Canadians the population will not grow faster than the housing stock under his leadership. https://t.co/TXq29qiryW pic.twitter.com/ZUX8pB2dkl
— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) September 11, 2024
Two-thirds of the housing supply gap is in B.C. and Ontario — the two most expensive provinces for real estate nationwide. The average housing cost in Vancouver (14.4) and Toronto (13.2) far exceeds the median household income.
The research anticipates a 72% surge in the cost of a two-bedroom apartment in Toronto over the next decade, pushing rents to $5,600 per month.
For the Greater Toronto Area, the research said annual housing completions must soar to 11% before local rents decrease.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre notes regional governments lack the revenue capacity to address housing affordability without federal assistance.
“The average mortgage payment has gone from $1,400, the day Trudeau promised to make housing affordable, to $3,500. That’s two and a half times higher,” he said then.
Housing Minister Sean Fraser blames businesses for an increase in low-wage temporary foreign workers after the pandemic, noting changes to the program “could reduce the pressure on tens of thousands of housing units right across the country.”https://t.co/TXq29qhTJo pic.twitter.com/ncUinQbS4a
— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) August 26, 2024
Prime Minister Trudeau earlier received in-house warnings that ‘mass immigration’ would wreak havoc on housing, but he failed to take action at the advice of top government officials.
According to documents obtained by The Counter Signal, Trudeau received a secretive memo from the Secretary of the Cabinet, Janice Charette. It claimed his immigration quotas worsened housing affordability.
Dated June 24, 2022, a classified memorandum addressed to the prime minister placed the blame squarely on his shoulders for Canada’s unaffordable housing — just one month into her tenure.
Charette said “broad agreement” exists that “homebuilding has been insufficient [compared] to housing demand in recent years.” Experts contend that immigration hikes and a shrinking homebuilding pace will worsen the housing gap.
Trudeau is on track to bring in 485,000 permanent residents this year, and half a million in each of the next two years. In 2022, Canada accepted 431,645 new permanent residents after setting a record with 401,000 newcomers the year before.
Canada needs an additional 3.5 million housing units to restore affordability. It is only on pace to grow the housing stock by 2.3 million units for 2030.
