Investment Bank JPMorgan Predicts the End of the War in Ukraine by July
By Intel Slava
Investment bank JPMorgan predicts the end of the war in Ukraine by July.
This is stated in the first report of the bank’s geopolitics center, which was recently created to help clients assess investment risks.
The bank’s analysts believe that the war has “entered the endgame” and a ceasefire will come before the end of the second quarter of this year.
The most likely scenario (50%), the center believes, is the “Georgian” one: after the war, Ukraine will not receive reliable security guarantees, will remain unstable, and over time, after one or two changes of power, will end up in Russia’s sphere of influence.
In second place is the “Israeli” scenario (20%): Ukraine will receive Western security guarantees, but not the introduction of Western troops. It will remain a militarized state, constantly ready for a new war.
According to JPMorganChase analysts, the least likely options (15% each) are “South Korea” and “Belarus”.
The “South Korea” scenario would see European troops stationed in Ukraine, backed by American intelligence and the promise of US assistance if the conflict resumed.
The “Belarus” scenario assumes that both the US and Europe will be unable or unwilling to ensure Ukraine’s security. This will allow Russia to achieve its maximalist demands and effectively turn Ukraine into a dependent state.
