Oil prices continued to rise for a third straight day on Monday, with Brent crude surging above $81 per barrel to hit a four-month high. The increase comes as traders believe the latest US sanctions targeting Russian oil exports could disrupt supplies to Moscow’s major buyers such as China and India.
Global benchmark Brent crude futures climbed by nearly 1.5% to $80.6 in morning trade on Monday, after crossing $80 a barrel on Friday for the first time since October. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also jumped by more than 1.5% to $77.7, hitting a four-month high. Both benchmarks have risen over 6% since January 8, data showed.
The US unveiled a “sweeping” new round of sanctions on Russia on Friday, imposed in coordination with the UK. The measures target two major Russian petroleum producers, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, and associated entities, and include restrictions on 183 vessels involved in transporting Russian crude oil.
The restrictions could sharply reduce Russian oil exports and prompt China, the world’s largest oil importer, and India, the third-largest, to source crude from alternative regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas, analysts have forecasted. The shift is expected to drive up global prices as well as shipping costs.
Goldman Sachs said on Monday that the announcement of the latest batch sanctions reinforces its view that the Brent price could rise further and exceed the range of $70-85 per barrel in the near term, Reuters reported.
According to the investment bank, the vessels targeted by the sanctions carried 1.7 million barrels per day of oil in 2024, accounting for a quarter of Russia’s exports, with the vast majority being crude oil.
Reuters cited RBC Capital Markets analysts as highlighting the logistical challenges to crude flows posed by the sanctions. Many of the tankers affected by the latest restrictions have been used to transport Russian oil to India and China after Russia redirected its crude supplies to Asia in response to a ban on seaborne oil imposed by the West in 2022. Some of these vessels have also reportedly carried oil from Iran, another country under sanctions.
Analysts from Onyx Capital Group warned that the restrictions aimed at a “very large number of tankers” could be particularly “consequential” for India, the outlet said.
Russia has emerged as a leading supplier of crude oil to India. New Delhi has repeatedly highlighted Moscow’s role in ensuring energy security and has pledged to increase its imports. Additionally, outgoing US President Joe Biden has acknowledged that the sanctions could have repercussions for American consumers, potentially leading to an increase in gas prices domestically.
Commenting on the sanctions, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Friday that while “some people leave a mark on history,” Biden will only leave a “mess” behind when his term ends later this month.
