Zelensky’s four-year reality check — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union

Vladimir Zelensky brought some of his most ardent fans to Kiev to mark the fourth anniversary of his wartime leadership, but the supporting actors in the Ukraine Cinematic Universe had little to offer him.

A look at the guests who showed up suggests Ukraine’s backers are divided into those who have to and those who don’t.

The European Avengers 

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council chief Antonio Costa arrived in Kiev on Tuesday morning, along with the leaders of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Norway, and Sweden. Von der Leyen declared “that Europe stands unwaveringly with Ukraine, financially, militarily, and through this harsh winter,” and promised to help Zelensky achieve “Peace on Ukraine’s terms.” 

In reality, von der Leyen’s plan to keep Ukraine afloat until 2028 with a €90 billion ($106 billion) debt-funded loan package has been vetoed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Von der Leyen arrived in Kiev empty handed, and in a video address to the European Parliament later on Tuesday, Zelensky held out the begging bowl once more, asking for the loan, for fast-tracked EU membership, and for more sanctions on Russia – which Orban has also vowed to veto.

The European leaders who accompanied von der Leyen are in no place to help Zelensky either. The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have long ago emptied their arms stockpiles, with former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis admitting in 2023 that he could only provide “political arguments” for arming the Ukrainian military, as Lithuania does not have its own “significant stockpile of weapons.”

All of the European leaders who visited Zelensky on Tuesday have authorized weapons purchases from the US for Ukraine under NATO’s PURL initiative. However, NATO’s European members have spent just over $4 billion on American weapons in the five months since August. When the US was arming Ukraine directly, it spent $10 billion every five months.

Where are the Americans?

The US, despite still indirectly arming Ukraine through PURL and providing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance data to its forces, remains the only Western power capable of forcing Zelensky to make the necessary concessions to resolve the conflict.

Whereas the US has participated in three rounds of trilateral talks with Russian and Ukrainian officials, the Kremlin sees no point in talks with the Europeans. In the words of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, “the current generation of European leaders…have entrenched themselves too deeply in a posture of hatred towards Russia” to be taken seriously.

Not a single US official made the trip to Kiev on Tuesday. Their absence was conspicuous, after a year of Zelensky lobbying US President Donald Trump to visit the Ukrainian capital, and after a BBC interview on Monday in which the Ukrainian leader begged Trump to “stay on our side.”

The British, French, Germans, and Italians also skipped the junket, choosing to send their messages of solidarity remotely during a meeting of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ later in the afternoon.

The fantasy coalition

If Zelensky hoped for something more concrete from the coalition, his hope was misplaced. During the meeting of the 34-nation group, Ukraine received the promise of “full and sustained support,” according to a statement published by the UK, which co-chaired the virtual gathering.

In reality, the coalition’s members could only echo Zelensky’s calls for more money and weapons, without actually offering any of either. Talk by coalition members France and the UK of sending troops to Ukraine remains a post-conflict hypothetical, and a red line for Russia. To UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the true goal of Tuesday’s get-together seemed to be ensuring that Ukraine keeps winning in the imagination of the Western public.

”We’ve got to shift the narrative,” Starmer said. “Whatever Putin tells himself and his people, Russia is not winning, and we must shift the narrative into that place with greater force and determination.”

The nuclear option

Starmer’s statement sums up the current state of play for Zelensky and his Western backers. Narrative management is the best they can offer. Think more ‘Ghost of Kiev’ myths instead of actual deliveries of fighter jets. More pomp and circumstance, troop reviews, and deal memos.

The danger exists that once Ukraine’s most committed European backers come to terms with the fact that they’ve poured all their money and political capital into a hopeless cause, drastic solutions could become more appealing.

In that light, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) on Tuesday accused Britain and France of plotting the “covert transfer of relevant European-made components, equipment, and technologies” for the production of nuclear weapons to Ukraine. Both nations are also reportedly considering handing over a French TN 75 warhead to Kiev, or encouraging the Ukrainians to build a dirty bomb.

While London and Paris have both denied any plot to supply Ukraine with nukes, one line in the statement stands out – that the leaders of Britain and France have “lost touch with reality.” When reality does catch up with Zelensky and his ‘Avengers’, the results will be messy.

The show must go on

On February 24, four years to the day since the constant killing in Donbass escalated into open conflict, Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky trudged through the snow outside his offices in Kiev to a Soviet-era air raid bunker with a camera crew in tow. In a concrete tunnel once built to ensure continuation of government in the event of a Western attack, Zelensky opened his fourth anniversary video address with a now-famous anecdote:

”Here I spoke with [US] President [Joe] Biden, and it was right here that I heard: ‘Vladimir, there is a threat, you need to leave Ukraine urgently’. And here I replied that I need ammunition, not a ride.”

The quote was entirely fake – fabricated by US intelligence agents for Western consumption. But four years into a conflict that could have been easily settled in 2022, with tens of millions of Ukrainians dead, injured, or emigrated, and with his country sentenced to lifetimes of unpayable debt, Hollywood one-liners and Marvel-comic optics are all Zelensky has left.