Almost Half of Australians Think Foreign Military Will Attack Within Five Years, ANU Study Suggests
By Sarah Basford Canales
University polling and focus groups found sharpest increase in those worried about national security was cohort aged 18 to 24
Nearly half of Australians believe a foreign military will attack the country within five years, as anxiety over national security issues rises sharply, a new study suggests.
The Australian National University’s National Security College report found that two-thirds of those polled in 2026, including an increasing number of teenagers and young adults, were worried about national security issues.
The study was conducted between November 2024 and February 2026. It found that three in five Australians were now worried about national security, with the sharpest increase among 18 to 24-year-olds. Fifty-five per cent of those in the age group said they worry about national security, an increase from 22% in November 2024.
Australians feared AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, critical supply disruptions, climate change impacts, foreign interference and severe economic crises – all of which 85% or more respondents believed were likely by the end of the decade.
Australia’s involvement in a military conflict overseas was a key concern, with 69% of those polled in July 2025 considering the event likely to almost certain within five years.
The surveys and focus groups, which examined the views of more than 20,000 Australians, were conducted in November 2024, July 2025 and February 2026, preceding the latest Israel and US war on Iran.
Lowest on the list of events that Australians considered likely was an onshore attack by a foreign military. But 45% still considered that eventuality either likely, very likely or almost certain within half a decade, when quizzed last July.
Such an attack was rated the greatest concern, with 43% of respondents deeming it would have “major consequences” and 36% regarding it “catastrophic”.
Worry over domestic terrorism events has increased, with 72% of respondents rating such an event as a “serious” concern in February 2026, following the Bondi attack, compared with 55% in November 2024.
The findings suggest most Australians believe the country is unprepared to deal with threats. More than half of those surveyed believed the country was slightly prepared or not at all for a foreign military attack, severe economic crisis, critical infrastructure attack or supply disruption.
The security college’s head, Prof Rory Medcalf, said the study’s results showed most Australians were concerned about national security and wanted more information.
“In a time when our security landscape is changing, it would be wrong to assume that Australians are complacent,” he said.
The study’s release comes as the latest Middle East war disrupted global fuel supplies, sending prices skyrocketing.
The federal energy minister, Chris Bowen, revealed on Sunday that six oil ships bound for Australia had been cancelled or deferred.
Bowen said the federal government was working to replace the tankers – with some already substituted – but conceded there would likely be “bumps in supply” in the coming months.
