Hurricane Melissa Closes in on Jamaica as a Category 4 Storm, Forecast to Bring Catastrophic Flooding
By Kate Reilly, George Solis and Dennis Romero
The slow-moving storm is forecast to reach Category 5, which would be the strongest to hit Jamaica on record.
Jamaican officials warned Sunday that some communities may not survive “catastrophic” flash floods as Hurricane Melissa, a powerful Category 4 storm, inched slowly toward the island.
Melissa was packing maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and moving west at 5 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 p.m. ET update. It was centered about 125 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica’s capital.
Melissa is forecast to strengthen to Category 5 within 24 hours, with hurricane center computer models showing “landfall of Melissa as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane” likely Monday night or Tuesday morning, according to an earlier update and its accompanying forecast discussion.
“It now appears virtually certain that the core of a powerful hurricane will move over Jamaica Monday and Tuesday,” hurricane center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said in a video update Sunday.
However, U.S. forecasters say an eye-wall replacement cycle could weaken Melissa at landfall, which would further erode its potency before it arrives in eastern Cuba on Tuesday night and the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.
Melissa is generating 10-foot waves as it drinks up 85-degree seawater. The storm’s minimum central pressure, a measure of power, was estimated at 933 millibars and dropping, a sign of strengthening and a number that would place it on a long list of the most intense tropical cyclones stateside.
The distinction between Category 4 and 5, however, will make little difference to its impact on the island, as either is expected to bring catastrophic destruction.
A storm surge before the arrival of Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean Terrace area of Kingston, Jamaica, on Saturday.
The hurricane center said late Sunday that Melissa was likely to cause “life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides” in parts of Jamaica and on the island of Hispaniola, shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
“With it will come long-duration, destructive winds, catastrophic flooding, loss of power, loss of communication, and communities will be cut off for several days in the aftermath,” Rhome said.
Melissa could be the strongest recorded storm the country has ever faced, according to Evan Thompson, the principal director of Jamaica’s Meteorological Service.
The storm will bring 15 to 30 inches of rain to areas of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center announced in an update Sunday afternoon.
Many Jamaican communities “will not survive this flooding,” said Desmond Mackenzie, Jamaica’s minister of local government and community development.
Jamaican officials anticipate mandatory evacuations.
All shelters across Jamaica have been activated and were housing 280 people Sunday afternoon.
Evacuation buses are parked in vulnerable areas waiting to evacuate residents, but “the response is not there,” said Daryl Vaz, Jamaica’s minister of science, energy, telecommunications and transport.
“There has always been a hesitancy when evacuation orders are given,” Vaz said. “Do not take this one lightly. This may be the one.
People watch the waves crash in Port Royal, Jamaica, on Sunday.
In Port Royal, Jamaica, Margaret Barkes said she was the only woman on an evacuation bus. She told NBC News she’s evacuating because she is a lupus patient and doesn’t want to be stuck without doctors nearby.
“Even though I have my medication here, I’m still not taking any chance,” Barkes said. “But to be honest, without my condition, I would have stayed.”
Barkes said she doesn’t expect anyone else to join her on the evacuation bus, adding that nobody is afraid in Port Royal, where she has lived for over 45 years.
Life-threatening storm surge is expected on the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level and will be accompanied by large and destructive waves, the NHC said.
With landfall in Cuba also likely, its government Sunday issued a hurricane warning for the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo and Holguín.
As U.S. Naval Station Guantanamo Bay evacuates nonessential personnel via ferry, the U.S. Embassy in Havana issued a weather alert warning American travelers of the catastrophic forecast.
Melissa has already killed four people — three in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic.
Storm conditions are being felt throughout parts of Jamaica, including the parish of St. Thomas, on the eastern coast.
Heavy rain and strong winds can be seen in videos taken at Serge Island Farms in St. Thomas on Sunday morning.
Current conditions @ Serge Island farms in St.Thomas, steady rain & stronger winds….still collecting milk, otherwise the cows face serious health risk…same situation facing dairy farmers islandwide, farms can slow down but can’t stop. pic.twitter.com/qcAvyUT8ve
— Richard Pandohie (@RichardPandohie) October 26, 2025
Residents in Melissa’s projected path are taking precautions as the storm approaches.
In Ocho Rios, Jamaica, a hotel has blocked off areas and placed sandbags on the property as a safety measure, as seen in a video a hotel guest posted Sunday morning on X.
Hotel is pretty much secured and blocked off in preparation. Not much change in weather from last night, gusts of 60-70 mph and intermittent heavy rain bands #stormmelissa #melissa #jamaica pic.twitter.com/4DHvZtEKV4
— Scott (CelestialTealMCFC) (@CelestialTeal) October 26, 2025
At Hope Zoo in Kingston, staff members took precautions to protect 1,500 animals from the storm, boarding up outdoor exhibits and moving animals indoors, according to a video co-posted on the zoo’s Instagram account early Sunday.
In the Dominican Republic, 82 people were in shelters and nine had been rescued from floodwaters, the country’s Emergency Operations Center said.
Some tourists are stranded in Jamaica as all international airports on the island have been closed.
The U.S. Embassy in Jamaica has advised U.S. citizens on the island to “shelter in place and contact your loved ones to let them know how you are doing.”
The embassy will be available for “emergency services only” from Monday to Friday.
Miami resident Nicole Doyon was on a yoga wellness retreat in Montego Bay when Melissa became a major threat to the island, stranding her and two friends.
“Our family is working overtime trying to exhaust any resources they can to help us out,” Doyon told NBC News. “We have friends calling the embassy, like everybody is doing their due diligence to help us out.”
Doyon said the villa they are staying in has put them in a safe room and has supplied them with water and food.
“We’re in the best situation that we could be in,” she said.
She and her friends have a flight booked out of Montego Bay airport for Wednesday.
